Program > Papers by speaker > Dumitrescu Elena

Testing for Extreme Volatility Transmission with Realized Volatility Measures
Elena Dumitrescu  1@  , Gilles De Truchis  2@  , Sessi Tokpavi  3@  , Christophe Boucher  1@  
1 : EconomiX
Paris Nanterre University
2 : EconomiX  -  Website
Université Paris Ouest Nanterre La Défense
Université Paris Ouest, Nanterre - La Défense Bâtiment G, 200, Avenue de la République 92001 Nanterre cedex -  France
3 : Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orléans
Université d'Orléans

This paper proposes a simple and parsimonious semi-parametric testing procedure for variance transmission. Our test focuses on conditional extreme values of the un- observed process of integrated variance since they are of utmost concern for policy makers due to their sudden and destabilizing effects. The test statistic is based on realized measures of variance and has a convenient asymptotic chi-squared distribution under the null hypothesis of no Granger causality, which is free of estimation risk. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations show that the test has good small sample size and power properties. An extension to the case of spillovers in quadratic variation is also de- veloped. An empirical application on extreme variance transmission from US to EU equity markets is further proposed. We find that the test performs very well in identi- fying periods of significant causality in extreme variance, that are subsequently found to be correlated with changes in US monetary policy.


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